What is predictive validity?

Predictive validity refers to the degree to which a test or assessment accurately forecasts or predicts a specific outcome or behavior in the future. It measures the effectiveness of the test in giving an indication of what can be expected, based on the scores obtained. In this context, choice B accurately defines predictive validity as the strength with which a test predicts designated behavior.

For instance, if a particular assessment is designed to measure aptitude for a specific job role, predictive validity would assess how well the scores on that assessment correlate with later workplace performance. High predictive validity indicates that the test is a reliable measure of future success in terms of the behavior or performance it is intended to predict.

In contrast, the other choices do not accurately capture the essence of predictive validity. The first option focuses narrowly on short-term prediction, which is not the core concept of predictive validity. The third option speaks to the correlation between similar tests, which pertains more to test reliability or construct validity rather than predictive validity itself. Lastly, the fourth option discusses analyzing past test performances, which relates to retrospective evaluations rather than forecasting future behaviors, a key aspect of predictive validity.